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What Is A Pandemic Flu?
Understanding what a pandemic flu is may not keep you well and healthy, but it helps you understand the magnitude of the possible situation. Understanding the magnitude may convince you to take action today to prepare for a large scale flu. The question isn't so much "will there be a pandemic flu?" but "when will there be a pandemic flu?". Whether it takes on the attributes of the 1918 Spanish Flu or a bird or avian flu, people will get sick and die. And the disease will be omnipresent, affecting everyone.
A pandemic is a global disease outbreak that can start when three conditions have been met:
1. the emergence of a disease that’s new to the population
2. the disease infects humans, causing serious illness
3. the disease spreads easily and sustainably among people
Pandemic flu occurs when a new flu virus, which people have no immunity to, emerges and spreads rapidly from person to person, country to country and around the world, causing serious illness and a high death rate. A pandemic is global while an epidemic is restricted to one locale. How does a pandemic flu compare to any other kind of flu?
For starters, all flu viruses evolve, making it difficult for them to be managed or controlled. A seasonal flu (or the common flu) is a respiratory illness that can be transmitted among people. Avian flu, also known as bird flu, is caused by flu viruses that naturally occur among wild birds. The H5N1 variant is deadly among domestic birds and can be transmitted from birds to mammals and occasionally to people. Presently, there is no human immunity to these viruses and no vaccines are yet available.
Since the 16th century, flu pandemics have swept the globe an average of three times per century emerging every 10 to 50 years. In the 20th century pandemics emerged in 1918, 1957 and 1968. In 1918, 20 to 100 million people died worldwide, in 1957, 2 million died and 1968, 1 million people died. If history repeats itself, we can expect a pandemic flu event in the coming years, with associated deaths.
Pandemic flu typically comes in waves, with the mortality rate being the highest at the beginning of the wave. The flu pandemics of 1889-1890 and 1918-1919 had three or four waves, with the mortality rate being higher in each subsequent wave. The U.S. mortality rate for the 1918-1919 flu was 2.5%, low compared to other nations.
Recently a virulent strain of flu in birds (like the H5N1) raised an alarm among authorities when it infected over 263 people in Asia, the Middle East and African countries. This virus has primarily spread from birds to humans with a few suspected cases of human-to-human transmission. Of those infected, 50-60 percent have died.
But how many will likely to be infected when a bird flu becomes pandemic? Historically, 25-35% of the population has been affected. And up to 60% of the infected people have died from bird flu.
Authorities are estimating that an Avian Flu pandemic might kill up to 350 million people worldwide. In Ouray County, based on a population of 4,286, that would translate to about 1500 ill people, and as many as 861 could die. At this time there is not a pandemic flu event; however, authorities feel it is prudent to prepare for such a situation given the scattered outbreaks that continue to happen around the world.
The federal government has allocated money to local counties to write a plan on how they would address a pandemic flu situation. Ouray County, Colorado, is working on a plan, as our counties all over the U.S. But don’t rely just on your local government for your well-being. Develop a plan for your family that will help keep you safe and comfortable during an emergency, like a bird flu pandemic.
